Even as the world is focused on the AI revolution on their computers and mobile phones, another revolution is quietly taking place on the streets.
Elon Musk has predicted an ambitious timeline for self-driving cars. Musk says that as many as 90 percent of the miles driven globally will be self-driven in 10 years. In five years, he says that 50 percent of the miles driven would be autonomous.
Musk made the prediction while speaking to US Senator Ted Cruz on a podcast. Musk also said that AI would rapidly become smarter, saying that AI would be able to do anything better than a human can in 10 years. “ In 10 years, probably AI could do anything better than a human can. Cognitively, I think in 10 years, based on the current rate of improvement, AI will be smarter than the smartest human,” he added.
Musk implied that this improvement in AI technology — as well as the concurrent improvement in robotics — will cause most miles driven to be autonomous in 10 years. It’s an aggressive timeline. Musk has been making bold claims about self-driving for more than a decade now, but they haven’t come to fruition as soon as he’d hoped. In 2016, Musk had said that a fully-autonomous Tesla would be able to drive across the US by 2017, and that hasn’t entirely come true even in 2025. Musk had also said that Tesla could have 1 million robotaxis by the end of 2020, but that hasn’t materialized either.
But while Musk’s bold timelines haven’t always worked out, autonomous driving has actually become a reality. Google subsidiary Waymo is completing fully autonomous trips — with no driver at all — with real passengers in several American cities including Phoenix, San Francisco and LA, and is looking to expand to other countries. Musk’s own company, Tesla, has massively improved the full self-driving in its cars, and people can let go of their steering wheels for longer and longer durations. Other car companies too have begun implementing self-driving features, such as automatic parking and lane changing.
As such, Musk’s prediction about 90 percent of all miles being self-driven by 2035 should be taken seriously. Crucially, Musk says that 90 percent of driven miles will be self-driven, not that 90 of cars will be self driving — it’s likely that most cars being built now on will have steering wheels and allow their human drivers to take control when they wish, but will largely be able to drive themselves because of their onboard computers with AI capabilities. It’s a pretty bold prediction, but if it does end up coming true, could end up transforming not only driving, but many other jobs and industries along with it.