Startup timing is usually a big determinant of whether the company makes it big, but entrepreneurs usually lean in a particular direction when they think about their own timing while starting up.
Entrepreneurs usually think they’re too late to build a business, but they’re usually too early, says VC Marc Andreessen. Andreessen connects this feeling of lateness to the very reason entrepreneurs pursue their ideas – the inherent belief that the world should already work the way they envision. This conviction, ironically, can lead to the misconception that everyone else must be thinking the same thing, creating a sense of urgency and a fear of being left behind.
“You almost always feel like you’re too late, and you’re almost always too early,” Andreessen had said in an interview several years ago. “You almost always feel like you’re too late. The reason is because, for you, it’s become obvious. You’ve got some idea in your head and, as far as you’re concerned, the world should already work this way, which is why you’re pursuing it.”
“And so to you, it’s a little bit inexplicable as to why it hasn’t happened yet, and there must be 80 other people going after the same idea, and it must be just about to happen, and I must be too late. This is actually how I felt with Netscape (that we were) too late. In retrospect, we weren’t.”
“The reality is you’re almost always too early. We almost never see a qualified founder fail because they’re too late to market; it’s almost always because they’re too early to market.”
“By the way, when we screw up investments, I think that’s often the reason as well. I think we’re in the exact same boat as the founder, which is we believe it’s going to happen, therefore we invest in it. It just turns out the way history gets written is the world just wasn’t ready yet.”
“So I always like to point out the iPad, this breakthrough product in 2009 –there was this thing called the Newton 20 years earlier in 1989. If you haven’t heard of it, look it up on Wikipedia. It was the iPad 20 years earlier, and it was virtually the same thing, and the world just wasn’t ready yet. The technologies weren’t in place; you didn’t have mobile broadband, you didn’t have the high-resolution screens, you didn’t have the battery technology. They brought the thing to market and crashed and burned, and it convinced people for 20 years that tablet computing would never work, and then they did it again…the iPad…and it worked.”
Andreessen’s words resonate deeply in today’s fast-paced technological landscape. Consider the recent explosion of generative AI. While the underlying concepts have existed for decades, the confluence of advanced algorithms, powerful hardware, and massive datasets has only recently made these applications widely accessible. Early entrants into this space likely felt the pressure of a burgeoning market, yet the technology and, importantly, user adoption were still nascent. Those who persevered, adapting to the evolving technological and market dynamics, are now at the forefront of a transformative era. Conversely, those who were too early, like the creators of the Apple Newton, may have had the right idea, but the supporting ecosystem simply wasn’t ready.
The key takeaway from Andreessen’s insight is not to dismiss the feeling of being “too late” but to recognize it as a potential indicator of being on the right track. The challenge for entrepreneurs becomes not just identifying a problem and envisioning a solution, but also accurately gauging the market’s readiness for that solution. This requires a nuanced understanding of not just the technology but also the broader context: user needs, existing infrastructure, and even cultural acceptance. The sweet spot for success lies in navigating the delicate balance between being early enough to capture a nascent market and late enough for the necessary ecosystem to support growth.