Elon Musk believes that AGI is within reach for xAI.
Elon Musk has said that there’s a 10% chance that Grok 5, the latest iteration of xAI’s Grok models, will be AGI. “My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising,” he posted on X. Musk also clarified what he meant by AGI. “Capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do, but not smarter than all humans and computers combined. That’s probably three to five years away,” he added.
Musk also said that Grok 5 will be better at AI Engineering than experts like former Tesla Director of AI Andrej Karpathy. “Grok 5 will be better at AI engineering (called “research” by the pompous) than (Andrej) Karpathy, for example,” he added.
When asked if Grok 5 will learn continuously — one of the main criticisms of current LLMs — Musk said that Grok 5 will look to fix that. “Dynamic reinforcement learning is important. Grok 5, like smart humans, will learn almost immediately,” he added.
Now a 10% percent probability isn’t the greatest, but the very fact that it’s being discussed shows that Musk sees potential in Grok 5 becoming AGI. Grok 4 was released in July 2025, and Musk has said that Grok 5 will be released before the end of 2025. And if Musk feels that there’s a 10% chance that Grok 5 which is due to be released in the next 3 months could be AGI, it does seem to appear that AGI is within touching distance at the top AI labs.