There is much concern about the risks associated with AI, but if things go well in the AI revolution, they could end up going very well indeed.
Elon Musk has offered a striking prediction about the future impact of artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics. His remarks touched upon a radical transformation of society, the potential for unprecedented economic abundance leading to “Universal High Income,” and the critical choices humanity faces between a utopian or dystopian outcome.
“I think we’re headed to a radically different world,” Musk said at an event in Saudi Arabia. “I think a good world, an interesting world. My prediction actually for humanoid robots is that ultimately there will be tens of billions. I think everyone will want to have their own personal robot. You can think of it as though you had your own personal C-3PO or R2-D2, or even better. Who wouldn’t want to have their own personal C-3PO, R2-D2? That would be pretty great,” he said.
He then elaborated on the economic engine behind this transformation, suggesting that humanoid robots would fundamentally alter the factors of production. “And I also think it unlocks an immense amount of economic potential. Because when you think about what is the output of an economy, it is productivity per capita times population. Well, once you have humanoid robots, the actual economic output potential is tremendous. It’s really unlimited, potentially. We could have an economy 10 times the size of the current global economy, where no one wants for anything,” he said.
This staggering economic growth, Musk argued, would redefine societal support systems, moving beyond mere subsistence. “You know, sometimes in AI, they talk about Universal Basic Income. I think it’s actually going to be Universal High Income, where anyone can have any goods or services that they want.”
However, Musk did not shy away from the inherent dangers, juxtaposing two starkly different futures dependent on humanity’s choices. “There are also some risks which illustrates that if we don’t do this right, you could have a James Cameron sort of movie, like Terminator. We don’t want that one. But having sort of a Star Trek future would be great, where we’re out there exploring the stars, discovering the nature of the universe, and a level of prosperity and happiness that we can’t quite imagine yet,” Musk said.
Musk’s concept of “Universal High Income” (UHI) is a significant leap from the more commonly discussed “Universal Basic Income” (UBI). While UBI is often proposed as a safety net in an AI-driven future where human labor might become less essential, UHI paints a picture of unprecedented abundance. The core idea is that if humanoid robots, like Tesla’s Optimus, can perform a vast array of tasks, they effectively become a new form of “capita” or productive unit, massively amplifying economic output. This could theoretically lead to a post-scarcity society where essential goods and services, and even luxuries, are readily available to everyone.
The implications of such a future are profound. Economically, it challenges current models based on human labor and scarcity. Socially, it raises questions about human purpose, motivation, and value in a world where work, as we know it, might be optional. But there are obvious dangers as well. Humans today have a much better life than they’ve ever had in the past, with farmers and labourers having access to technologies like phones and TVs that emperors of the past could only dream about, but there’s still unease about societal inequality. Humans are hardwired to compete with each other, and even with potentially unlimited resources, humans could look to create new status games which would determine their position in the societal hierarchy. It remains to be seen which version of the future plays out, but Musk’s vision is compelling — an addition of billions of new robot workers into the economy could unleash abundance never thought possible.