Gemini has been rapidly catching up to ChatGPT in recent months, but its growth hasn’t been uniform across geographies.
New data on AI chatbot market share for January 2026 — compiled from web and mobile traffic by SimilarWeb and SensorTower — reveals a striking divergence in how Google’s Gemini performs across different countries. While Gemini is a genuine rival to ChatGPT in parts of East Asia, it still has considerable ground to close in the world’s two largest English-language markets.
Where Gemini Holds Its Own
Japan and South Korea stand out as the markets where the ChatGPT-Gemini race is most competitive. In Japan, ChatGPT commands roughly 57% of AI chatbot traffic — a dominant share, but one that leaves significant room for Gemini, which appears to hold its second-place position more convincingly here than almost anywhere else. South Korea tells a similar story: ChatGPT holds approximately 48% of the market, making it the only country in the dataset where its share dips below 50%, with Gemini and a cluster of smaller players — including Adot and Alice — accounting for the remainder.
The reasons likely relate to Google’s deep integration into Android ecosystems and the active promotion of Gemini as a default assistant on mobile devices — a strategy that has driven significant user adoption in markets with high Android penetration. Both Japan and South Korea rank among Asia’s most smartphone-centric societies, and Google’s push to bundle Gemini with its mobile products appears to be paying dividends.
Where ChatGPT Remains Dominant
The United States and India present a much tougher picture for Gemini. In the US, ChatGPT holds approximately 80% of AI chatbot traffic, leaving Gemini and rivals like Perplexity and Claude to split a relatively thin slice of the remaining market. India follows a broadly similar pattern, with ChatGPT commanding close to 75% of traffic — a somewhat surprising figure given that Google has invested heavily in TV advertising for Gemini specifically in India to expand its reach beyond core tech users.
The UK and Germany, both large English-adjacent markets, also show ChatGPT holding firm above 70% and approaching 75% respectively — suggesting that Western markets remain more resistant to Gemini’s advances, at least for now.
The Russia And China Wildcards
Two countries in the dataset operate under entirely different dynamics. Russia’s market is notably fragmented: ChatGPT holds only around 25%, followed by a substantial share for Giga.chat — the homegrown Russian AI assistant — alongside significant usage of DeepSeek and other platforms. Western sanctions and content restrictions have created an unusual competitive environment that no other market replicates.
China, unsurprisingly, is the most distinctive market of all. ChatGPT’s footprint is minimal, with Doubao — ByteDance’s AI chatbot — commanding a large share alongside DeepSeek and other domestic players. DeepSeek’s volatile trajectory globally, after surging in early 2025 before declining sharply, appears less pronounced within China’s domestic market, where it retains a meaningful share.
The Broader Picture
Zoomed out, the data reinforces what recent SimilarWeb figures for February 2026 have already made clear: Gemini’s 643% year-over-year traffic growth is real and accelerating, but it has not yet translated into parity with ChatGPT in the markets that matter most commercially. ChatGPT’s DAU/MAU ratio of 36% — nearly double Gemini’s 21% — suggests that ChatGPT users are more habitual, returning to the platform far more frequently than Gemini’s growing but less sticky user base.
For Google, the East Asian results will be encouraging proof that Gemini can win in highly competitive markets. The challenge now is translating that playbook to the US and India — where the battle for the AI-native user is far from over.