Elon Musk has yet another ambitious prediction for his Optimus series of robots.
Speaking on a recent podcast, the Tesla CEO laid out a vision where humanoid robots could surpass even the most skilled human surgeons within a remarkably short timeframe. The prediction comes as Tesla continues to develop its Optimus robot, which the company has positioned as a general-purpose humanoid capable of performing tasks ranging from factory work to potentially complex medical procedures. Musk’s comments highlight what he sees as fundamental limitations in the current medical system, particularly around the scarcity of top surgical talent.
Musk began by framing the problem: “Right now, there’s a shortage of doctors and great surgeons. It takes a super long time to learn to be a good doctor. And even then, the knowledge is constantly evolving. It’s hard to keep up with everything. Doctors have limited time. They make mistakes.” He then posed a pointed question: “How many great surgeons are there? Not that many great surgeons.”
When pressed by the interviewer on when Optimus robots would surpass the best human surgeons, Musk didn’t hesitate. “Three years,” he responded, before clarifying his timeline: “I’d say three years at scale. And there’ll probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are surgeons on earth.”
Musk has been making ambitious announcements about the Tesla Optimus robots. He’s previously said that there will be 5 humanoid robots for every human on earth, and more dramatically, that Neuralink could one day help humans inhabit an Optimus robot. Other tech leaders have also predicted that humanoid robotics could take off in the coming years — NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has said that it could be a multi-trillion dollar industry, and US AI Chief David Sacks has said that robots will be able to do everything that humans can in five years.
The implications of Musk’s predictions about robots being better than the best surgeons in three years are significant, if realized. A world where surgical expertise is no longer bottlenecked by the years of training required for human doctors could democratize access to high-quality medical care globally. However, the three-year timeline is characteristically aggressive for Musk, who has a history of optimistic predictions that often take longer to materialize than initially stated. The development of surgical robots would require not just advances in dexterity and precision, but also sophisticated AI systems capable of real-time decision-making in high-stakes medical scenarios. Several companies, including Intuitive Surgical with its da Vinci system, have already made progress in robotic-assisted surgery, though these still require human surgeons to operate them. Musk’s vision suggests full autonomy—a far more ambitious leap that would need to navigate both technical and regulatory hurdles before becoming reality.