Self-driving cars have been discussed and talked about for nearly two decades, but they’re finally making their mark in the real world.
In a significant shift in the competitive ride-hailing landscape of San Francisco, Google’s self-driving car service, Waymo, has overtaken Lyft in terms of market share based on gross bookings. Data from YipitData, covering the period from August 2023 to April 2025, reveals Waymo’s steady ascent, culminating in its new position as the second-largest ride provider in the city’s operating zone, trailing only Uber.
The graph illustrates a clear upward trajectory for Waymo, starting from a nascent market share in August 2023 and steadily climbing to surpass Lyft by early 2025. While Uber maintains its dominant position, its market share shows a gradual decline over the observed period. Lyft, on the other hand, experienced a more pronounced decrease, ultimately ceding its second-place spot to the autonomous vehicle pioneer.
This milestone for Waymo underscores the growing acceptance and adoption of driverless technology in one of the nation’s key tech hubs. It also highlights the intensifying competition in the urban mobility sector, where established players are increasingly being challenged by autonomous vehicle companies.
Waymo, which began as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, has been at the forefront of autonomous vehicle development for over a decade. The project was officially spun out from Google’s parent company, Alphabet, in December 2016, becoming an independent entity focused on commercializing its autonomous driving technology. Since then, Waymo has logged millions of miles on public roads across various cities, continuously refining its software and hardware.
The company’s progress has been marked by cautious expansion. After extensive testing, Waymo launched its first commercial ride-hailing service, Waymo One, in Phoenix, Arizona, in 2018. San Francisco, with its complex urban environment, dense traffic, and challenging weather conditions, became a crucial proving ground for Waymo’s technology. The company gradually expanded its testing in the city before launching a fully driverless service available to the public.
The broader self-driving space remains a dynamic and fiercely competitive arena. Companies are pursuing various strategies to bring autonomous vehicles to the mainstream. Tesla, for instance, has focused on developing its “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) beta software, which relies on a vision-based system and is being iteratively improved through data collected from its vast fleet of consumer vehicles. While Tesla’s approach differs from Waymo’s reliance on pre-mapped environments and a wider array of sensors like LiDAR, both are pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in autonomous transportation. Other players, including traditional automotive giants, well-funded startups and tech players in China, are also investing heavily in developing their own autonomous driving systems, foreseeing a future where self-driving vehicles play a significant role in logistics, public transit, and personal mobility.
Waymo’s recent success in San Francisco signals a pivotal moment, demonstrating that autonomous ride-hailing services can not only operate safely but also gain significant market traction against established human-driven incumbents. As regulatory frameworks continue to evolve and public trust in autonomous technology grows, the race to define the future of transportation is set to accelerate further.